Vision Pro sales have been estimated at 160,000 to 180,000 over the first three days of pre-orders in an analyst report. That’s somewhere over 40% of the 400,000 units Apple was reportedly expecting to sell in the first year.
While the estimate sounds impressive, the analyst does inject a note of caution, and we’d also add our own riders to it …
Based on pre-order inventory and shipping time, I estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend.
He does, though, include a cautionary note.
The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened. It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders.
He compares this to iPhone pre-orders, where shipping times quickly slip – and then continue slipping, as demand continues to outstrip supply. Vision Pro, in contrast, has not seen shipping times continue to increase. This suggests that Apple didn’t have enough stock on hand to meet initial demand, but demand and supply are now balanced.
While the 160k+ figure is encouraging, it’s not just Kuo’s cautionary note we need to consider here.
Kuo’s estimate is based on a combination of two factors. One – the slips to shipping dates – is known. The other – the amount of initial stock Apple had on hand – is itself based on Kuo’s own estimate, albeit informed by supply-chain research.
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